It's been three weeks since Bay Area counties issued a shelter in place order due to the COVID-19 outbreak (seriously, just three weeks).
That's three weeks since non-essential businesses were forced to closed, since restaurants had to quickly shift to serving takeout and delivery only, three weeks since many of our local businesses pivoted to virtual everything.
In that time, many of you have applied for SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) and are eagerly doing so for the "Paycheck Protection Program," a $350 billion program for businesses with less than 500 employees, i.e., every business in the 94941, whereby loans will be forgiven, functioning as grants, if the funds are used for payroll costs, mortgage interest, rent and utility payments and if businesses retain employees and employees receive at least 75% of their prior pay.
In that time, the Mill Valley Chamber has been relentlessly hunting, and lobbying for, every manner of economic relief we can bring to local businesses. We successfully called for a ban on evictions related to income loss due to COVID-19, and we pushed for property tax deferment, with the County of Marin agreeing to allow COVID-19 and its horrific economic impacts as a consideration for those applying for a Penalty Waiver with the Tax Collector. We've also shared information with local businesses about ways to help your employees file for unemployment benefits as well as sick and caregiver leave.
The latest shelter In place order extends through May 3. Most major events are postponed or canceled for the foreseeable future. We're appealing to the broader 94941 community to support the legions of local businesses hanging on by a thread, including ordering takeout and delivery as much as possible.
So now what? Where do things go from here? How bad will it get and how can Mill Valley and its neighbors survive this horrific moment and prepare itself for the next phase, an eventual – likely in June at the earliest – lessening of sheltering in place and social distancing.
In a virtual chat this week with local and regional business and policy leaders, the Marin Economic Forum gathered a pair of acclaimed economists, MEF Chief Economist Robert Eyler and Jon Haveman of the National Economic Education Delegation, to dig into what's ahead.
"This is a health crisis fundamentally, but it turns out to be the perfect storm of economic difficulty on both the supply side and the demand side," Haveman said, who emphasized that there was no doubt that the "cure is much better than the disease." "In the absence of social distancing, there was a potential for this downturn to be deep but not terribly long. But with social distancing it will be much longer, and has already brought significant unemployment."
Both rejected the notion that the "cure has been worse than the disease," however. Haveman pointed to a $5.2 trillion benefit to social distancing vs $1.3 trillion cost, even considering the extended timeline and recession.
In some ways, the bigger question ahead is not when public health officials will be likely to lessen social distancing requirements, but when will the public itself feel ready to gather again, he said.
Haveman and Eyler noted that Marin In particular relies heavily on retail, food, hospitality and visitor-driven industries. "Most of those jobs are going to go away for while," he said.
"A lot depends on when that flow of visitors to and through Marin will come back to have an experience north of the Golden Gate Bridge," Eyler said.
Eyler added that the vast majority of firms in Marin have less than 5 employees – more than 60 percent – and thus is more vulnerable as well.
The pair's biggest takeaway was the critical need for local businesses to keep their just laid off or furloughed employees close.
"It's extremely important to maintain these employee-employer relationships, so that at the end of this, flipping the switch back on is that much easier," Haveman said.
A trio of additional takeaways:
That's three weeks since non-essential businesses were forced to closed, since restaurants had to quickly shift to serving takeout and delivery only, three weeks since many of our local businesses pivoted to virtual everything.
In that time, many of you have applied for SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) and are eagerly doing so for the "Paycheck Protection Program," a $350 billion program for businesses with less than 500 employees, i.e., every business in the 94941, whereby loans will be forgiven, functioning as grants, if the funds are used for payroll costs, mortgage interest, rent and utility payments and if businesses retain employees and employees receive at least 75% of their prior pay.
In that time, the Mill Valley Chamber has been relentlessly hunting, and lobbying for, every manner of economic relief we can bring to local businesses. We successfully called for a ban on evictions related to income loss due to COVID-19, and we pushed for property tax deferment, with the County of Marin agreeing to allow COVID-19 and its horrific economic impacts as a consideration for those applying for a Penalty Waiver with the Tax Collector. We've also shared information with local businesses about ways to help your employees file for unemployment benefits as well as sick and caregiver leave.
The latest shelter In place order extends through May 3. Most major events are postponed or canceled for the foreseeable future. We're appealing to the broader 94941 community to support the legions of local businesses hanging on by a thread, including ordering takeout and delivery as much as possible.
So now what? Where do things go from here? How bad will it get and how can Mill Valley and its neighbors survive this horrific moment and prepare itself for the next phase, an eventual – likely in June at the earliest – lessening of sheltering in place and social distancing.
In a virtual chat this week with local and regional business and policy leaders, the Marin Economic Forum gathered a pair of acclaimed economists, MEF Chief Economist Robert Eyler and Jon Haveman of the National Economic Education Delegation, to dig into what's ahead.
"This is a health crisis fundamentally, but it turns out to be the perfect storm of economic difficulty on both the supply side and the demand side," Haveman said, who emphasized that there was no doubt that the "cure is much better than the disease." "In the absence of social distancing, there was a potential for this downturn to be deep but not terribly long. But with social distancing it will be much longer, and has already brought significant unemployment."
Both rejected the notion that the "cure has been worse than the disease," however. Haveman pointed to a $5.2 trillion benefit to social distancing vs $1.3 trillion cost, even considering the extended timeline and recession.
In some ways, the bigger question ahead is not when public health officials will be likely to lessen social distancing requirements, but when will the public itself feel ready to gather again, he said.
Haveman and Eyler noted that Marin In particular relies heavily on retail, food, hospitality and visitor-driven industries. "Most of those jobs are going to go away for while," he said.
"A lot depends on when that flow of visitors to and through Marin will come back to have an experience north of the Golden Gate Bridge," Eyler said.
Eyler added that the vast majority of firms in Marin have less than 5 employees – more than 60 percent – and thus is more vulnerable as well.
The pair's biggest takeaway was the critical need for local businesses to keep their just laid off or furloughed employees close.
"It's extremely important to maintain these employee-employer relationships, so that at the end of this, flipping the switch back on is that much easier," Haveman said.
A trio of additional takeaways:
- They credited the federal government for passing the $2 trillion economic rescue package last month. "It's a miracle that Congress was able to come through and pass what it did," Haveman said. "And the Federal Reserve has done in 188 days what it did in 18 months during economic recession of 2009."
- Businesses need to develop better business continuity plans. "This will not be our last pandemic," Haveman said. "You shouldn't only source products from China but a range of sources."
- Telecommuting. "This is an amazing experiment to tell us about the benefits of telecommuting," he said. "We’re going to see a big ramp up in terms of telecommuting."